A recent Los Angeles Times report says voters are shedding their identification with the two major political parties. In fact, independents may outnumber Democrats and Republicans within the next fifteen years.
Nearly two-thirds of independent voters say the two-party system is inadequate and a third party is needed.
Is a no-party state or a multi-party nation in the making?
In the new scenario transient coalitions would form around candidates and issues instead of around parties. Campaigns would use technologies and databases to target and communicate with voters based on their preferences, not party identification. And candidates would have to expand their platforms to include issues attractive to disconnected voters. 1990 was a turning point. More than 40% of voters younger than 25 register as neither Democrat nor Republican, and independent registration among the Hispanic population is higher than for Anglos.
Independents…are driving the green, socially moderate, and fiscally conservative agenda. Independents believe global warming is a serious problem and are among the strongest supporters of social innovations: medical marijuana use, assisted suicide for the terminally ill, the morning-after pill, hybrid automobiles, gay and lesbian marriage and a woman's right to abortion while supporting a fiscally conservative agenda. They align with Republicans by favoring smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes and align with Democrats by supporting more money for education, preschool programs and health programs and insurance. Although Hispanic voters still register as Democrats, more have begun to register as independents. Recent surveys indicate that 22% of Latino voters are registered as independents, compared with 17% of whites.
El Paso may be undergoing a quiet revolution in this regard. Some local officials were asked to speak about their politics and their view seems consistent with the trend described above.
Luis Sarinana, candidate for County Commissioner #1 said, "I am fiscally conservative and always try to hold the line on taxes but at the same time I think we need to understand the needs of so many limited-income people in the county. Government should be involved with making sure everyone is playing on a level field."
Eddie Holguin Jr., who recently commissioned a poll that shows he wins, hands-down, over defeated candidate Barbara Perez, with two lesser known candidates making up less than 4 percent, said, "I think of myself as a fiscal conservative and a social liberal. I believe in self-help, entrepreneurship and business." Both Sarinana and Holguin identified themselves as Democrats.
Bobby Ortiz, former candidate for the 16th Congressional District and who identifies as Republican said, "I am very conservative and believe in promoting business opportunity but I also recognize that we have still a lot of work to do to eliminate racism and elitism in El Paso. The National Hispanic Assembly was an effort to expand the Republican Party to include Mexican Americans. It was destroyed by the local Republican leadership. If you are not part of the "Club" they will come after you and destroy you."
Locally, the Democratic Party has carved out the territory of socially responsible government including health care for seniors and children. They have built their party agenda around the environment, sensitivity to people of all genders and a woman's right to choose. Many in the party have wrapped their campaigns around a fiscally conservative agenda. But, the majority of those Democrats in local political office are still of the "tax and spend" variety.
Alternatively, the Republican Party has carved out the territory of small government including the elimination of welfare programs and health insurance for the very low-income. They have built their party agenda around support for big business and corporations under the notion that such a strategy provides more investment capital that creates the jobs needed to respond to a growing population. They say they want lowered taxes and relief for taxpayers. They talk tough on crime.
Independents in El Paso have not succeeded in organizing a third alternative although recently some have pushed hard to bring visibility to Libertarian candidates. The Nov. 7 ballot contains a number of Libertarian candidates for a variety of state offices.
Over the past few years, the number of people that have voted straight Democrat has hovered at 35%. This built-in advantage for Democrats continues to ensure local domination of the County by El Paso Democrats. The current chairman, attorney Danny Anchondo, has been pushing hard to increase the straight Democratic vote.
Many Republicans criticize straight ticket voting but a survey of Republican strongholds in North and East Texas reveals straight ticket voting by Republicans.
Independents account for a small percentage of votes in El Paso County. But Libertarians hope that can all change over the next few years. Patrick Dixon, the state Chairman for the Libertarian Party has his sights set on El Paso. "El Paso County is very important to us. We are in the process of reorganizing our County organizations and are looking for people to lead the Party in El Paso so that we may establish a stronger presence in 2008." A local libertarian added, "Our strategy is simple. We need people to vote independently based on the issues not the party. In our case, we have endorsed candidates from all parties who we feel are close to our principles."
Nationally, the balance of power may change on election day and Democrats may strike a significant win. This will no doubt force a reevaluation of the War in Iraq, the huge national debt, the general dominance of big oil over government policy and the rabid anti-immigrant policies of the Bush Republicans.
To local Democrats, the key overriding issues in this election locally and nationally are immigration reform and the War on Iraq. "We cannot continue the pretense that Iraq is about the war on terrorism. The lie has been exposed and anyone still defending that is a liar," said one Democratic precinct chair.
To local Republicans, the key to beating Democrats is voter turnout and more specifically getting sympathetic voters to the polls. But, the strategy includes not identifying candidate's partisan affiliation. Many Republican candidates are pushing their campaigns without identifying themselves are Republicans.
Some Republicans expected that a good portion of Dee Margo's engorged campaign budget would be directed to taking voters to the polls and helping all Republican candidates. In addition, some well-known political operatives are working for Republicans. They have to make a living they say and Republicans are putting a lot of money on the street.
But one Northeast Republican said, "Republicans don't think that far ahead. It is always about personalities. Many westsiders and noreasters have no problem voting for Bush Republican Dee Margo AND Tax and Spender Susie Byrd even though their policies are diametrically opposed. It is about being a member of the "Club."
For their part, Libertarians are not optimistic. There are unmistakable signs our government is "rotten to the core," says one local Libertarian. Aside from racism and elitism locally, few things will change nationally even if Democrats take over and, certainly, if Republicans remain in control. "All are corrupt and our civil liberties are being eroded. No one seems upset about this in Congress and our President is tone deaf. The situation needs a major overhaul so we can hold our government to account."
Return to top.
This perspective first appeared in Border Observer, Jaime O. Perez, Editor