The mid-term elections are over and it is clear, there has been a structural shift in American politics, at all levels of government.
The Democratic control of the House of Representatives (230 to 205) will mean a great deal of pressure on the White House to change course if they expect another Republican President. But the deadlock in the Senate (51/49) may mean gridlock and a Republican advantage over the next two years that can come back and hurt potential Democratic Presidential candidate.
The good news for Democrats running up to the Presidential contest in 2008 is they can now undo some of the gerrymandering (redistricting to favor Republicans over Democrats) by Republicans to gain advantage over Democrats.
American voters say, "No To War, Deceit."
The voters have signaled unequivocally they are tired of the Republican War in Iraq; the on-going deception by President Bush regarding its initial justification i.e. the existence of weapons of mass destruction and Al Qaeda links with Saddam Hussein; and of Republican high-level corruption.
The closeness of some races show independents and libertarians shifted toward Democrats on the expectation that those elected will begin to set forth a policy that will extricate the country from Iraq and clean up Congress. The mandate is a two-edged sword. On the one hand, it will pressure Republicans to accommodate change. Already President Bush is meeting with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. On the other, Democrats will have to deliver on the promises they have made.
Texas say, "No To Democrats."
The state democratic delegation including Chente Quintanilla, Rep. District #75 won a decisive victory and the short-term political battle to keep El Paso's leadership in the blue column.
But it may have already lost the war in Austin, as it will face a clearly dominant Republican trend. Republicans have not shown any willingness to work with a minority delegation led by a combative advocate, Sen. Elliot Shapleigh District #29.
Gov. Perry's win is a relief to many border Hispanics, Democrat, Republican and Libertarian, that were greatly alarmed when Carole Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman spouted anti-immigrant rhetoric, calling for the militarization of the border and bringing back the Texas Rangers. His win however is consistent with traditional Republican strength at 36%.
Shapleigh won with straight Democratic votes and the support of independents. His personal political position has been greatly strengthened as the voice for El Paso and sets him up for a potential U.S. Congressional bid. Norma Chavez, State Rep. District #76 has also been mentioned as a potential candidate. She beat Congressman for the 16th Congressional District Silvestre Reyes' political machine in the Democratic Primary by defeating Marty Reyes.
El Paso say, "No To Tax and Spend."
Locally, El Paso voters shifted away from the "Tax and Spend" group of politicians, and toward those considered members of the "Fiscal Responsibility" group. They reelected Dan Haggerty as County Commissioner Precinct #4 and handed a decisive victory to Luis Sariñana (59%) for County Commissioner Precinct #1. With County Judge Anthony Cobos at the helm, the County is now decidedly fiscally conservative and centrist.
The realignment means a weakening of the "Tax and Spend" group on city council. Tax and Spenders may be exiting.
Rep. Presi Ortega District #5 cannot run for reelection. Rep. Ann Lilly District #1 is showing serious weakness and has been unable to put together a coalition on the Westside that would ensure her reelection. Rep. Robert O'Rourke District #8 has been under fire by opponents to his father-in-law's financial dealings downtown and faces an uphill battle with an announced opponent Felipe Luna.
Rep. Eddie Holguin Jr. District #6, a fiscal conservative and strong critic of utility increases, looks unbeatable. A recent poll commissioned by his campaign shows him beating a well-known politician handily.
However, one source, requesting anonymity, reports a relative of a former lobbyist of the El Paso Electric Company (EPEC) plans to run against him.
This may mean a great deal of money may pour into that race. But, Holguin, says he is not intimidated by money, "People in the Mission Valley and on the Eastside have told me they are with me and I am confident."
Straight Party Voting
Straight Party voting told the story in El Paso. Both Democrat and Republican straight party voting hovered at 42%. The balance of votes is 60/40. This percentage means that for Republicans to have a winning strategy in 2008, they will have to overcome their party's animosity towards Hispanics.
The active opposition of Bobby Ortiz, a conservative Hispanic Republican, to Dee Margo's campaign, is symptomatic of the internal problem with the local Republican Party. Additionally, the lack of ideological consistency of Republican Party leaders continues to be a factor.
One noreaster Republican said, "The local Republican leadership votes for conservative Dee Margo as easily as for tax and spend Susie Byrd. They have to figure out they have to vote for their values not simply for members of the elite club of Anglos."
Ethnic Factor
Hispanic Surnames accounted for 6 percent of the vote margins. In other words, a Hispanic candidate in El Paso can count on an automatic 6 point advantage when running against a non-hispanic.
Independents and Libertarians
Independents and Libertarians shifted toward Democrats in both national and local elections and demonstrated some movement in Texas state races. The strength of this group in Texas hovers at 10%. It would need to reach a level of voter strength of at least 20% (1 in 5 voters) to make a difference in 2008. if Democrats do not deliver, they may well reach that strength.
Turnout
One in four voters turned out 93,582 of 373,103 . The consensus regarding El Paso and, more specifically, Hispanic influence in state races is they must increase turnout by at least 75% to become major players.
Return to top.
This perspective first appeared in Border Observer, Jaime O. Perez, Editor